Global rice production forecasted to reach a 505 million tons record

The US Department of Agriculture has forecasted that global rice production in the 2021 - 2022 crop will slightly increase and reach a new record level.

Global rice production volume is forecasted to reach a 505 million tons record in the 2021 - 2022 crop. Photo: TL.

According to the Center for Industry and Trade Information, in May 2021, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) first published preliminary data on the 2021 - 2022 crop’s world rice supply and demand.

Correspondingly, USDA has made a prediction that global rice production volume will increase 2% compared to the previous year's crop, reaching a new record of 505 million tons.

To be more specific, production will increase in Bangladesh, Thailand and China. However, production in India and the US is prognosticated to drop, but the decline rate in India is insignificant compared to this country's total production volume.

Global rice acreage increase in the 2021 - 2022 crop year has been foreseen, mainly thanks to countries in Asia and Africa, although the US experiences a drop in acreage.

In regard to the 2020 - 2021 crop year, the US Department of Agriculture has downgraded their global rice production volume forecast from the previous report, mainly due to reduced production in Ivory Coast and Bangladesh.

Global rice consumption in the 2020 - 2021 crop year is predicted to increase, by virtue of the increased consumption in East Asia, especially China (increasing use of rice for animal feed). Rice consumption in Southeast Asia is expected to remain stable but will recover in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of increased supply and cheaper rice prices.

World rice trade in 2021 will increase mainly thanks to India's strong increase in rice exports due to competitive prices, despite that there exists a decrease in supply in India, as well as in China. India is expected to continue its dominance in the global rice export market.

The world rice trade in 2022 is forecast to remain the same as in 2021. Particularly, imports from South Asia are expected to reduce the most, as Bangladesh tries to boost rice production volume to recover after two years of losses.

However, rice imports into sub-Saharan Africa will increase sharply, especially in Nigeria and Madagascar. Entry to markets including Central America, Middle East and the Caribbean are predicted to be relatively stable like this year, while entry to South America will decline amidst ample production and supply.

In terms of exports, US Department of Agriculture forecasts that India will remain the world's top exporter in 2022, followed by Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan. Exports from China are expected to be equivalent to 2021.