Shrimp exports likely to fall 4 per cent this year

This year’s shrimp exports are expected to drop 4 per cent to US$ 3.4 billion in comparison to last year as competition from shrimp prices have exerted pressure on shrimp exporters.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), due to an increase in the supply source of shrimp coupled with low export prices, shrimp export turnover during the first nine months of the year has suffered a 7 per cent decrease against the same period last year.

During the first half of the year, the price of imported shrimp at markets saw a downward trend compared to last year. This can be attributed to an increase in overall shrimp output, a fall in the price of raw shrimp, high inventories, and growing supply of the product from other countries.

This has resulted in shrimp exports declining since 2018, with the export volume of the product falling in the first half of the year. Despite the drop, shrimp exports have bounced back since July this year.

Exports to major markets such as the EU, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and ASEAN have seen a downward trajectory, although exports to some markets like China, the United States, and Australia have increased slightly.

Exports to the EU endured negative growth of 19 per cent, while exports to major consumers such as the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands plunged. Indeed, the average export price to these markets fell dramatically to US$1 per kilo over last year.

In the Japanese market, although the export volume has remained stable, market demand has not increased. The average export price has fallen by US$1 USD per kilo from US$12 to US$11, causing the overall export value to the market to shrink.

Shrimp prices from Thailand and Indonesia stayed stable at US$11 per kilo, while India’s shrimp prices suffered a slight decline to US$9.3 per kilo.

According to VASEP, due to a sharp increase in exports starting from July, shrimp exports to the US market during the nine-month period rose by 3 per cent on-year after experiencing a downward trend during the first half of the year owing to high inventories.

VASEP forecasts that shrimp exports to the US, Chinese, and Japanese markets will witness an upturn during the remaining months of the year as a result of a decrease in the inventory volume coupled with rising demand.

Shrimp output in India is predicted to fall by 20 to 30 per cent due to the impact of weather conditions and low prices. Furthermore, domestic firms may make adjustments in anticipation of this situation and alter their export plans to match events in the Chinese market.